First declarations are in and it has got to be the biggest exodus from the Cups in history.  There are still quite a few good quality internationals coming though, particularly from the UK.  The Mug’s initial pick, Scriptwriter, was soundly beaten into 3rd in the Ebor and the winner of that race, Purple Moon, now looks as the clear cut favourite of the raiders.  The $21 on Sportingbet looks good value and if it comes, I’d expect definite single figure odds - it’s already $15 with a few of the others.

The clear local hopes for the Melbourne Cups now look, rather boringly, like the 3rd and 4th placed horses from last year, Maybe Better and Zipping.  But in the interest of trying to find some value, the Mug’s mind has gone to thinking that this year may be the year for a low weight wonder.  The line of thinking is that with so many early drop outs, there may be a few sneaky light weighters that get through and are currently out in the market.  An easy choice would be something like Master O Reilly at $41, but perhaps something like Testafiable ($251) or Desert Master ($201), both in at around the 51kg mark.