In reference to an entry from a couple of weeks ago, where I claimed to be surprised at Activation being allowed to run what seemed to be a team race so that there was a genuine pace for Efficient, I stand corrected.

In the back of my mind I seemed to recall that Activation was up for sale after last year’s Melbourne Cup.  Sure enough, he’s no longer owned by the great Lloydmeister, but was in fact sold to another racing heavyweight, Peter Rowsthorn.

The Mug apologises (even though no one actually picked this up, because of course, no one’s reading)

A small foray into the Junction was made on Saturday.  The Mug was on light beer which always dampens the occassion.  Combined with this, a little extra traffic meant that the mugpunter team were shunted off to a corner.  And a quaddie where not one leg saluted guaranteed a changed perspective from visit one.

The day started well enough with the first bet of the day landing on an upheld protest and then the second bet of the day landing the Mug’s first spruik horse of the Spring - Purrealist.  2 for 2, which is an unusual start and for some reason, never good.  There’s something so much more satisfying about going the whole day without a winner and landing the last 2 than there is winning early.

Being stuck in Siberia at The Junction is far less satisfying than being in the central corridor with the hard core punters.  For a start, the jokes about being in prison with the central bars are only a distant whisper.  And the overwhelming number of lcd panels is not quite so noticeable stuck over there, which takes away from the effect.  Even being bumped into by the one-armed man with the metal claw (who was com-pletely pissed) didn’t have the same cachet.  And to top it all off, the donkey Rubiscent goes and spoils the party of the racing by skipping away in a slowly run race and holding on.

The iPhone avenger down from Sydney was suitably impressed at least, claiming he’d never thought a Pubtab would have such nice toilets.  This prompted a discussion on the merits of the loo as an indicator of a venue’s attention to detail - should money be spent on the front of house or is a flash dunny a sign of quality.  Comments welcome.

With the cups now looming (6 weeks tomorrow to the big one) The Mug has laid the cards on the table.  The speculative bet for the Melbourne Cup is Mighty, currently at $101 with TAB Sportsbet.  The Mug has taken $20 of that action.

The rationale:  Just run 7 lengths 5th to Yeats at WFA and meeting it 5.5 kgs better from that race.  This race was also its first start in 3 months (straight to 2800!) and from the reports stayed on well.  He’s a 4 y o so should be improving and has been targeted at the cup.  The plan is to go via the Geelong Cup.

Plus I like the name …….

The Mug was having a quiet punt at home on Saturday and was looking forward to the match race in what has got to be the biggest mouthful of a race name as it gets printed - The Dato Tan Chin Nam (formerly Feehan stakes).  I don’t understand why the formerly the Feehan seems to always follow the Dato Tan but is not used say, for the Makybe Diva stakes which used to be the Craiglee, or the many others that are changed.  Anyway …

Cinque Cento had stuck out to me as a good chance in the DTCM (FFS) when doing the form as it looked like getting a soft lead and perhaps being a chance to kick away in the straight.  Then Lloyd decides to do a bit of team running and send Activation out as a pacemaker, presumably to get Efficient stretching out at the line as happened, which gets announced 5 minutes before the race and after the bet had gone on (or so I thought).  The bet was a $5 straight out trifecta on Haradasun - El Segundo - Cinque Cento.

So as the big fellas surge to the line, the Mug is yelling at the screen and is convinced Harada has bagged it on the line.  So the disappointment was palpable when the result came out, only for the Mug to notice an extra little browser window open, waiting for the bet on the race to be confirmed!

Always check your tickets …..

First declarations are in and it has got to be the biggest exodus from the Cups in history.  There are still quite a few good quality internationals coming though, particularly from the UK.  The Mug’s initial pick, Scriptwriter, was soundly beaten into 3rd in the Ebor and the winner of that race, Purple Moon, now looks as the clear cut favourite of the raiders.  The $21 on Sportingbet looks good value and if it comes, I’d expect definite single figure odds - it’s already $15 with a few of the others.

The clear local hopes for the Melbourne Cups now look, rather boringly, like the 3rd and 4th placed horses from last year, Maybe Better and Zipping.  But in the interest of trying to find some value, the Mug’s mind has gone to thinking that this year may be the year for a low weight wonder.  The line of thinking is that with so many early drop outs, there may be a few sneaky light weighters that get through and are currently out in the market.  An easy choice would be something like Master O Reilly at $41, but perhaps something like Testafiable ($251) or Desert Master ($201), both in at around the 51kg mark.

Is there anyone who’s bet on the ante post market that knows what is happening with their bet at the moment (excluding those on the mercenary Betfair, where bets always stand).  Michael Sullivan of Sportingbet suggested that there was no way that they would profit out of the flu and that they stood to return punters bets.  TAB Sportsbet have told punters to hold all tickets.

But The Mugpunter crew has both sides of the coin.  The Lawyer took advantage of the Japanese “double odds” offer and put some readies down on the 3 Japanese chances, none of which seem likely to now travel, due to the flu in both Japan and Oz.  On the flipside, DJ has taken $41 on Maldivian that now looks great value, with a little of $8 on offer from Betfair.  Do they cancel both bets?  Or do punters get to keep the bets on those that are first acceptors and get the rest refunded?  If so, it could be the first free lunch ever laid out on the races.  I wonder if the TAB will apply for some of the government’s emergency assistance package!

The Mug has drawn lucky as well, having not laid a bet as yet.  Pompeii Ruler, the Mug’s early favourite is out, Mentality can’t travel and Scriptwriter ran a listless 3rd at York, meaning it’s unlikely as well.  The only bright light is Maybe Better, who put in another good run in the Memsie.  With a host of unlikely runners, it is looking the jewel in the spring cups.

To inject some interest into the beleaguered spring carnival, The Mug is going to facilitate a Spring Racing tipping comp.

Starting 6 October, with the Tunrbull Stakes, and going through to the Sandown Classic on 17 November, the Mug will take tips on each Group 1 or Group 2 race during that period (1 tip per race) and proposes score them using the following arbitrary and complicated system:

5 points for a winner, 3 points for second, 1 point for 3rd

An additional point for every $5 in the price (above the first $5) for the winner only

When there are multiple races on a given day, an additional 2 points for 2 winners, 4 points for 3 winners, etc (think Derby Day)

The Mug will make a weekly post to which comments should be made with your tips for that week on the day of final acceptances - generally either Tuesday or Thursday. It is your responsibility to come back with changes to scratchings. No subs!! Email to themug@themugpunter.com or enter via the form will be accepted as valid up until the first race on the day. The winner will get a bottle of MugPunter wine.

Happy to take updates / suggestions on the proposed system over the next week in order to get to an argeed system, ready for the action to heat up.

Who knows what this will mean, given the state of racing, but the Mug was doing a bit of video study for tomorrow’s punt and has decided that the best run seen so far this season has been from Purrealist.

Could El Santic be lucky enough to land another champ?  History would seem to lend itself to having many once having the first ….

And unfortunately, that means viral life as well.  The Mug was saying to Mrs Mug a few days ago that once the new EI outbreak was out in the general population, it was never going to be contained.  We’ve got horse flu, now live with it and get on with racing.

And so it is proving.  As of today, 488 confirmed cases and another 1600 odd suspected cases.  Cases confirmed at Randwick and suspected at both Warwick Farm and Rosehill.  It is only a matter of time before it is in Victoria.  The Mug read comments from Luca Cumani with interest, who was questioning the vast overreaction to the outbreak.  Get the horses vaccinated and get on with life was the gist of his comments.

We should be asking the TAB to open a market on the day of the first confirmed case in Victoria …..

The uncorroborated medical records from 2 unnamed players from an unnamed AFL club show that they have been receiving counselling for having carried Equine Influenza into the AFL scene.  An unnamed source has sold the unsubstantiated papers for an undisclosed sum to The Mugpunter.  We have it on good authority that both positive tested players were, in fact, first round draft picks and come from a club with the worst looking jumper in the league.  Undisclosed legalities prevent us from uncovering more.

All interstate games will now be banned, meaning that the AFL finals will be limited to clubs from Victoria.  This will mean that the Saints will make the 8, along with, Essendon, the Dogs and the Dees.  There is even talk of Geelong being banned from travel to Melbourne, meaning that, as usual, the Tiges will miss the 8 by one spot.

Due to quarantine restrictions, the MCG and the Dome are also off limits, meaning the finals will be played at Junction Oval and Moorabbin

Ah, the joy ….