It has been interesting to have a Saturday with no racing.  The lawn got mowed!

Let’s just not do this again ….

The Mug watched with interest (from the comfort of a web browser) on Saturday and continues to be amazed at the influence that the race commentator can have on the opinion of race horse performance.

Both Maybe Better and Blue Monday put in good runs in the Liston - no doubt.  They were at least holding ground and perhaps making ground on the leaders.  But given a relatively soft run by the Cat and a hardly inspiring run by Marasco, so they should’ve.  Marasco ran quick sectionals but seemed to give everything.  Caulfied track and running room were the excuses - still not quite sure I understand this?!

For the Mug, the run of the race was Pompeii Ruler, who was behind all but Sphenophyta at the 600 and took many lengths out of the leaders, at what looked like a track gallop.  Should be Cox Plate favourite.  Of other things around on the weekend, I liked the run of the beaten Mentality in Sydney.  Really had no chance the way the race was run and looks like it will be better over longer.

Who knows about Maldivian?  On face value, DJ’s $41 bet for the Caulfield Cup is looking good.

So at this stage, the Mug is attached to the following (not very exciting) Spring predictions:

Cox Plate - Pompeii Ruler, Mentality

Melbourne Cup - Maybe Better, Scriptwriter

I like the Racenet site.  It has good info and some good writers.

For the spring, they have added a feature where they list all runners entered in one of the big races that are running on that day - check out Major Races.

The first antepost bets of the season have been reported, with the lawyer taking a spec on the Japanese raiders for this year’s Melbourne Cup, taking advantage of the normally parsimonious TAB and the double odds on offer last Saturday.

Odds taken

Delta Blues @ $61

Tosho Knight @ $41

Already looking good bets with the TAB now posting them at $15 and $17 respectively (although you can get $32 and $36 on Betfair - in any other marketplace, would the TAB still be in business?).

Watched with intent yesterday looking for the first signs of any kind of spring performer to jump out of the ground and give us a ride all the way to the Cups and Plate.  DJ even went to the trouble of bringing along the nominations for the Melbourne Cup and the Cox Plate.

But there was just nothing to see.  Of the day, The Mug noted the following (mainly obvious) things:

Apache Cat is going to win a Group 1 mile race over the spring.  I just hope they don’t go for the Plate, as I don’t think it has 2000 metres in it

Haradasun - who knows?  One lesson reinforced - never back a horse that comes from the back in a small field, particularly at odds on

The one no-one mentioned was Maybe Better.  It looked like it was just warming up at the winning post and from the 400 they didn’t take any ground out of it - a big chance, I think, given it should only improve from last year.

Of the second tier horses, you can write your own ticket for the ones that raced yesterday - Spielmeister can’t be trusted.  Perhaps Yolo as a chance for the Caulfield Cup, but not enthused

On to next week.

After a dirty day on the punt yesterday (which is becoming a habit) we’d ante’d up for a final fling at the trifecta in the last in Melbourne.  We picked out our 4 horses, filled in the ticket and laid the bet.  The Mug sauntered over for a final round of sherbet and watched the race at the screen over the bar.

When the due numbers saluted in a blanket finish, the walk back to the table was with puffed chest.  But no, 3,4,7 & 9 had become 2,3,7 & 9.

Remember, always check your tickets ……

The Mug and DJ ventured for a quick punting donation to The Junction Hotel, Preston. This pub has always been intriguing. It sits on the junction (surprise) where Plenty Rd and High St merge into just High St and looks from the outside as if only the lowest of low characters would frequent it. But whether it’s something to do with the gentrification of Preston or not, both the Pub and crowd were surprisingly fun.

The punting room is in the shape of an isosceles trapezoid (who said studying maths would have no real life use!), with the bar being at the fat end and the main screen at the skinny end. Although to even talk about the main screen is a bit irrelevant in this place. The centre of the room is divided by what DJ described as “an architectural flourish” - a set of wrought iron arranged randomly like prison bars (more about this anon) that had been broken out of by the Incredible Hulk. Attached to the centre artwork are 1/2 dozen tables, each with their own punting cards, hole in the middle housing a bin for dead tickets and 20 inch TV showing the current Skychannel race.

Spread around the edges of the room are more flatscreen TV’s than at a Good Guys. There are punting tickets, form guides and tables a plenty. And although the room is really one big space (architecture excluded), there has been a great use of the space to create a couple of small pockets of seating that feel separated from the punting. The loos were good in the same way that the Cramer Hotel ones were bad - clean, warm and modern. The outdoor smoking area was also great - heaters to keep those clambering for early death warm while they do it and nice tables and chairs to keep their legs fresh while they do it.

As always, though, there is room for improvement. The placement of the TAB self service betting machine is just wrong. There seemed to be 5, unobtrusive places that it Read More →

The horses are now another year older and Saturday really marks the beginning of the return of the stars, old and new. It was about this weekend last year that The Mug began an odyssey for the spring, going the plunge on Zipping for the Caulfield Cup after a close up fifth in the equivalent race to the Bletchingly, being run this Saturday. Getting on a $71 and then watching the odds tumble in to $6 was one of my best racing experiences, as was the anguish of then watching it almost not get a start, drawing the grandstand and finishing nowhere.

It also set off an unhealthy taste for the ante-post market. As if picking a winner on the day was not hard enough, picking from a field of 200 horses 3 months before kick-off seems, and is, inordinately stupid. But it is the lure of the big reward that draws the Mug, and really not even the win, but the experience of seeming to have some ability to pick a good horse before the pack.

So the focus of the Mugpunter this spring, along with finding a good place to punt, will be identifying potential antepost winners for the big races. Not based on press or punditry, but by picking out a few of the week-to-week performances that indicate a big spring for a few lesser knowns.

And your help is required. The Mug needs contributors. Pick your horses to watch and the Mug will create a page that lists them and their odds for the 3 big spring races. To check the nominations, go here.

The Mug made a quick business trip to Adelaide during the week and found a pub punter’s paradise. It would be fair to say that on a Wednesday night in Adelaide there appears to be not much happening - I had to walk about 500 metres from my hotel to find on open shop, staying pretty much in the centre of town. However, on the walk I made between my client office and the hotel, I passed no less than 4 PubTabs.  This immediately inspired the need for a later expedition.

The venue of choice was the Duke of Brunswick Hotel - aptly named given the Mug’s normal Melbourne stomping ground.  And what a great Pubtab - easliy better thanany venue visited in Melbourne.  It has a nice betting area.  All the screens are LCD so take up no space and give a 500% better picture.  The betting area is well contained but the screens are viewable from a big area.

The only caveat is the Wednesday night affect - it would be different when busy for sure.  And the old style card machines that look like 20 year old  laser printers take away from the otherwise sleek design of the pub.

But the main thing was the pub just had a good feel for having a beer.  It was definitely a locals pub - every person who came in the door other than me was acknowledged by the rest of the pub.  The lack of a decent haircut to comment on was a disappointment.

All in all, a good experience.

As for the other Pubtabs passed during the journey, there was another pub to add to the Pubtab combination list.  So far the list is just one - in Sydney, combining chinese food and punting.   However Adelaide has the BTZ Pub - site of a Pubtab and Strip club.  It also has a claim to fame as the site of Adelaide’s only recorded drive-by shooting.  A must visit!

The Mug has been lax in keeping the blog up to date over the last weeks. Basically, there are 2 reasons:

1. 1. Losing, losing, losing. It has been a month of unending losses. Even the wins have been losses. Takeover Target failing to salute in the UK Group 1 sent small shivers through the bank, followed by the Biscuit in the July Cup - I mean, what was he doing leading?
   2. Losing!

But we’re committed to coming back. This week has seen the Mug spread into Golf betting (as if losing on the Punt was not enough). 2 small wagers have gone onto the Open, both on English players - Luke Donald and Ian Poulter. Watch this space.